Fed Indicator Is Flashing Stagflation, Maybe Recession – Silver Doctors


Standard knowledge holds that the U.S. economic system is overheating. New employees are…

by John Rubino of Greenback Collapse

Standard knowledge holds that the U.S. economic system is overheating. New employees are nearly unavailable, uncooked materials prices are hovering, and naturally monetary asset costs are within the stratosphere. And that’s why the Fed has to tighten aggressively.

It is a compelling argument since a lot of the stats backing it are actual.

Nonetheless … the entire above may quickly develop into out of date within the face of dramatically slowing progress. The jury remains to be out, however the newest studying on the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow real-time progress measure is fairly grim.

The blue line on the next chart represents the consensus of prime economists, whereas the inexperienced line is GDPNow’s progress fee based mostly on the newest numbers. The latter is brutal, as near zero because it’s potential to get. However – far more necessary – even the upper consensus progress fee is just too low for the “overheating” thesis. And it’s trending down.

A part of this sudden reversal of financial fortune is because of the US This fall GDP report being principally sizzling air, inflated because it was by a large stock construct which is able to detract from slightly than contribute to future progress. See Mike Shedlock’s GDP Up 6.9% Is Principally An Artificially Boosted Phantasm.

The upshot: Financial spirits may change dramatically within the subsequent few months, with corresponding modifications in rates of interest, inventory costs, and all the remainder. Strap in!



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