Russian Ruble relaunched linked to Gold and Commodities – RT.com Q and A


With Russia’s central financial institution having simply profoundly altered the worldwide commerce and financial system by linking the Russian ruble to each gold and commodities, the journalists at RT.com in Moscow requested me to jot down a Q and A article on what these developments imply, and the ramifications of those modifications on the Russian ruble, the US greenback, the gold worth and the worldwide system of currencies. This text is being printed on the RT.com web site. 

Common readers will recall that I’ve contributed to fairly a number of RT.com articles earlier than, corresponding to about Australian gold (see BullionStar right here), US Treasury gold (see BullionStar right here), Poland’s gold (see RT web site right here), China’s gold (see RT’s Spanish web site right here), why purchase bodily gold (see RT web site right here), and gold worth manipulation (see RT web site right here).   

Nonetheless, since RT.com is now blocked and censored in lots of Western places such because the EU, UK, US and Canada, and since many readers could not have the ability to entry the RT.com web site (except utilizing a VPN), my Questions and Solutions which can be within the new RT.com article at the moment are printed right here of their entirety.

Who would have thought that residents of ‘free speech’ Western international locations would want a VPN to learn a Russian information web site?

Why is setting a Fastened Value for Gold in Rubles important?

By providing to purchase gold from Russian banks at a hard and fast worth of 5000 rubles per gram, the Financial institution of Russia has each linked the ruble to gold and, since gold trades in US {dollars}, set a flooring worth for the ruble when it comes to the US greenback.

We are able to see this linkage in motion since Friday 25 March when the Financial institution of Russia made the fastened worth announcement. The ruble was buying and selling at round 100 to the US greenback at the moment, however has since strengthened and is nearing 80 to the US greenback. Why? As a result of gold has been buying and selling on worldwide markets at about US$ 62 per gram which is equal to (5000 / 62) = about 80.5, and markets and arbitrage merchants have now taken be aware, driving the RUB / USD trade fee greater.

So the ruble now has a flooring to the US {dollars}, when it comes to gold. However gold additionally has a flooring, so to talk, as a result of 5000 rubles per gram is 155,500 rubles per troy ounce of gold, and with a RUB / USD flooring of about 80, that’s a gold worth of round $1940. And if the Western paper gold markets of LBMA / COMEX attempt to drive the US greenback gold worth decrease, they must attempt to weaken the ruble as nicely or else the paper manipulations will likely be out within the open.

Moreover, with the brand new gold to ruble linkage, if the ruble continues to strengthen (for instance resulting from demand created by compulsory power funds in rubles), this can even be mirrored in a stronger gold worth. 

Gazprom – Pure gasoline powerhouse and Russia’s largest firm 

What does this imply for Oil?

Russia is the world’s largest pure gasoline exporter and the world’s third largest oil exporter. We’re seeing proper now that Putin is demanding that overseas patrons (importers of Russian gasoline) should pay for this pure gasoline utilizing rubles. This instantly hyperlinks the value of pure gasoline to rubles and (due to the fastened hyperlink to gold) to the gold worth. So Russian pure gasoline is now linked through the ruble to gold.

The identical can now be executed with Russian oil. If Russia begins to demand fee for oil exports with rubles, there will likely be a right away oblique peg to gold (through the fastened worth ruble – gold connection). Then Russia might start accepting gold straight in fee for its oil exports. The truth is, this may be utilized to any commodities, not simply oil and pure gasoline.

What does this imply for the Value of Gold?

By taking part in each side of the equation, i.e. linking the ruble to gold after which linking power funds to the ruble, the Financial institution of Russia and the Kremlin are basically altering the complete working assumptions of the worldwide commerce system whereas accelerating change within the world financial system. This wall of patrons looking for bodily gold to pay for actual commodities might actually torpedo and blow up the paper gold markets of the LBMA and COMEX.         

The fastened peg between the ruble and gold places a flooring on the RUB / USD fee but additionally a quasi-floor on the US greenback gold worth. However past this, the linking of gold to power funds is the primary occasion. Whereas elevated demand for rubles ought to proceed to strengthen the RUB / USD fee and present up as the next gold worth, as a result of fastened ruble – gold linkage, if Russia begins to just accept gold straight as a fee for oil, then this might be a brand new paradigm shift for the gold worth as it might hyperlink the oil worth on to the gold worth.  

For instance, Russia might begin by specifying that it’s going to now settle for 1 gram of gold per barrel of oil. It doesn’t need to be 1 gram however must be a reduced provide to the present crude benchmark worth in order to advertise take up, e.g. 1.2 grams per barrel. Patrons would then scramble to purchase bodily gold to pay for Russian oil exports, which in flip would create enormous strains within the paper gold markets of London and New York the place the complete ‘gold worth’ discovery relies on artificial and fractionally-backed cash-settled unallocated ‘gold’ and gold worth ‘derivatives. 

Russian gold bars saved in wood bins within the Gokhran vaults, Moscow

What does this imply for the Ruble?

Linking the ruble to gold through the Financial institution of Russia’s fastened worth has now put a flooring below the RUB/ USD fee, and thereby stabilized and strengthened the ruble. Demanding that pure gasoline exports are paid for in rubles (and probably oil and different commodities down the road) will once more act as stabilization and help. If a majority of the worldwide buying and selling system begins accepting these rubles for commodity funds preparations, this might propel the Russian ruble to changing into a serious world forex. On the similar time, any transfer by Russia to just accept direct gold for oil funds will trigger extra worldwide gold to movement into Russian reserves, which might additionally strengthen the steadiness sheet of the Financial institution of Russia and in flip strengthen the ruble.

Discuss of a proper gold commonplace for the ruble is likely to be untimely, however a gold-backed ruble should be one thing the Financial institution of Russia has thought of.     

What does this imply for Different Currencies?

The worldwide financial panorama is altering quickly and central banks around the globe are clearly taking be aware. Western sanctions such because the freezing of the vast majority of Russia’s overseas trade reserves whereas attempting to sanction Russian gold have now made it apparent that property rights on FX reserves held overseas will not be revered, and likewise, that overseas central financial institution gold held in vault places corresponding to on the Financial institution of England and the New York Fed, isn’t past confiscation.      

Different non-Western governments and central banks will subsequently be taking a eager curiosity in Russia linking the ruble to gold and linking commodity export funds to the ruble. In different phrases, if Russia begins to just accept fee for oil in gold, then different international locations could really feel the necessity to observe swimsuit.

Have a look at who, aside from the US, are the world’s largest oil and pure gasoline producers – Iran, China, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar. Clearly, all the BRICS international locations and Eurasian international locations are additionally following all of this very intently. If the demise of the US greenback is nearing, all of those international locations will need their currencies to be beneficiaries of a brand new multi-lateral financial order.  

“It was as soon as stated that ‘gold and oil can by no means movement in the identical path’.” ANOTHER 1997

What does this imply for the US Greenback?

Since 1971, the worldwide reserve standing of the US greenback has been underpinned by oil, and the petrodollar period has solely been potential resulting from each the world’s continued use of US {dollars} to commerce oil and the USA’s skill to stop any competitor to the US greenback.

However what we’re seeing proper now appears like the start of the top of that 50-year system and the start of a brand new gold and commodity backed multi-lateral financial system. The freezing of Russia’s overseas trade reserves has been the set off. The enormous commodity robust international locations of the world corresponding to China and the oil exporting nations could now really feel that now could be the time to maneuver to a brand new extra equitable financial system. It’s not a shock, they’ve been discussing it for years.  

Whereas it’s nonetheless too early to say how the US greenback will likely be affected, it should come out of this era weaker and fewer influential than earlier than.      

What are the Penalties of those Developments?

The Financial institution of Russia’s transfer to hyperlink the ruble to gold and hyperlink commodity funds to the ruble is a paradigm shift that the western media has probably not but been grasped. Because the dominos fall, these occasions might reverberate in numerous methods. Elevated demand for bodily gold. Blowups within the paper gold markets. A revalued gold worth. A shift away from the US greenback. Elevated bilateral commerce in commodities amongst non-Western counties in currencies apart from the US greenback.

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